Head vs Heart - The SimBoxx Betting Preview

Josh Warrington’s shock knockout defeat to Mauricio Lara was a real acca killer last week & no doubt would’ve ruined plenty of bets, the ‘Leeds Warrior’ was as short as 1/50 in the majority of places as he suffered a first career defeat. Luckily there’s plenty of boxing this coming weekend to attempt to claw back some of the deficit!

Here I’ll give my personal betting tips from each of the three cards with a simple format of what my HEAD (logic) says & what my HEART (a little more risky) says, as a disclaimer I’d like to add I am in no way a betting ‘expert’, just offering my light hearted tips!

David Avanesyan (26-3-1) v Josh Kelly (10-0-1)

The main event offering from Matchroom this Saturday is an extremely anticipated clash between rivals Avanesyan & Kelly, a fight that has scheduled no less than 4 times dating all the way back to December 2018.

The delay, the bad blood & the afore mentioned anticipation has elevated this contest to main event stature & it’s a true 50/50 contest.

Splitting these two is a difficult task, Kelly the more astute boxer but hasn’t looked at his sparkling best in his last two contests but remains undefeated, Avanesyan on the other hand has scored 3 consecutive stoppage victories in his last 3 bouts, picking up the European title in the process, who does the delay favour? The answer to that question goes a long way in determining the victor on Saturday evening.

My HEAD says; Avanesyan is riding a huge wave of momentum, stopping the dangerous Kermin Lejarraga on two occasions, if he’s at his rugged, powerful best he could hurt & potentially stop Josh Kelly in the second half of the fight, AVANESYAN rounds 7-12 4-1

My HEART says; Is PBK the real deal? Trainer Adam Booth certainly thinks so & they’re predicting a stoppage victory of their own, this could be Kelly’s moment to announce himself as a world class welterweight with a statement win, if he stands & trades this could be a war. KELLY to win the fight & both men knocked down 8/1

Undercard picks;

Florian Marku v Rylan Charlton is a great undercard bout that has plenty of tongues waging, just like the main event opinions are split, I’m going to play it safe & just pick the fight not to go the 10 rounds distance. Robbie Davies Jr & Jordan Gill are two late additions to the card taking on Gabriel Valenzuela & Cesar Juarez, respectively. After last weeks afore mentioned heroics of their country Mauricio Lara bit away fighters will have added impetus to score upsets of their own.

My HEAD says; MARKU & CHARLTON not to go the distance, GILL & DAVIES JR to win on points, the treble pays better than 4/1

My HEART says; Fireworks are expected in Marku v Charlton and if the hype is justified then either man to win inside rounds 1-5 at 21/10 could be very profitable.

Miguel Berchelt (37-1) v Oscar Valdez (28-0)

A supremely anticipated all Mexican world title fight takes place in the US in the early hours of Sunday morning, WBC super featherweight champion Miguel Berchelt looking to make a 7th successive defence of his world title against undefeated countryman, Oscar Valdez. Valdez himself is a former WBO featherweight title & is undefeated, though he’s moving up in weight here.

My HEAD says; BERCHELT is the naturally bigger man, there’s talk of him moving to 135lbs in the future, whilst Valdez has shown vulnerabilities at 126lbs, with that in mind a knockout victory for the defending champion is my pick 4/7

My HEART says; My heart pick is an odds on shot so to if you want to return a little more profit or if a smaller stake is your preference maybe a flutter on the BERCHELT stoppage win to come between rounds 9-12 at 2-1 is more desirable.

Luke of SimBoxx


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